What if a post-AI memory glut busts Korea's chipmakers?
A post-AI DRAM oversupply crash halving Samsung/SK Hynix earnings is a semi-cycle top: short the AI-capex memory complex (Micron, the HBM names) and the won, with the read that NVDA/TSMC wobble on demand-assumption resets. The provided DeepSeek (Jan-2025) and Micron-guidance (Dec-2024) analogues are apt — both cracked chip-demand narratives and hit memory hardest. Korea's trade balance is memory-levered, so the won is the macro expression. Forward: HBM concentration means this cycle's bust is narrower but deeper than prior DRAM gluts.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. After the AI buildout peaks, a DRAM oversupply crash halves Samsung and SK Hynix earnings, dragging the won and Korea's trade balance lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Growth surprise ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.04–+0.74% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.52–+1.32% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 3 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.16–+0.25% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.74–+0.37% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.8–+0.59% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 6 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.83–+0.78% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.73–+0.26% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.09–+1.7% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.62–+0.8% · other way -3.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.24–+1.64% · other way -2.6% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.74–+3.84% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.12–+0.01% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.0% | 69% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +1.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.5% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.4% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.0% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
DRAM cyclical busts recur; post-AI oversupply halving earnings plausible over 18m but timing uncertain. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.