What if Korean defense-export boom outlasts a Peninsula thaw?
Even amid de-escalation, Hanwha/KAI win large European and Middle East arms contracts, decoupling their earnings from local peace; the KOSPI defense subsector is bid while overall risk appetite rises.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Even amid de-escalation, Hanwha/KAI win large European and Middle East arms contracts, decoupling their earnings from local peace; the KOSPI defense subsector is bid while overall risk appetite rises. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Global growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.54–+2.46% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.4–+6.3% · other way -1.74% (n=12) |
| 3 | Northrop NOC 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.39–+2.0% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 4 | RTX RTXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -1.02–+0.83% · other way -1.65% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.83–+2.94% · other way +24.08% (n=7) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.58–+3.7% · other way +3.05% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -7.02–+2.84% · other way +5.0% (n=8) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.53–+1.88% · other way +5.29% (n=8) |
| 10 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.51–+12.73% · other way +4.95% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +11.7% · 5d +5.6% | 83% | 11 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +1.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -4.1% | 67% | 17 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 22 | 0.25 | · |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.4% | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +6bp | 56% | 38 | 0.12 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | · |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +1.2% | 51% | 35 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.3% | 51% | 38 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.9% | 51% | 20 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -2.4% ↺ fades | 46% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 46% | 27 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 25 | 0.00 | · |