What if LNG oversupply forces Qatar to defer expansion phases?
A multi-year gas glut and soft Asian demand push Qatar to slow later North Field trains, trimming the projected fiscal windfall and softening the emirate's growth and surplus outlook.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A multi-year gas glut and soft Asian demand push Qatar to slow later North Field trains, trimming the projected fiscal windfall and softening the emirate's growth and surplus outlook. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.