What if buyers strike at the 30-year Treasury auction?
A failed 30y auction lifts term premium and real yields, bear-steepening the curve and hammering long-duration tech via the discount-rate channel, with gold/BTC bid on reserve-confidence loss. The Aug-2023 weak-auction/Fitch-downgrade episode and the 2022 gilt-LDI spiral are the templates: the long end gaps first. Forward angle: with foreign official holdings of USTs a shrinking share, the marginal buyer is now price-sensitive RV/leveraged money, so tails are fatter than the official-buyer era.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A failed 30-year auction sends term premium surging as foreign central banks pull back from duration, steepening curves worldwide. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +20bp hist -14.42–+59.94% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +18bp hist -16.74–+49.32% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.06–-0.46% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.21–-0.29% · other way +1.89% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 5 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +46bp · 5d +11bp | 100% | 3 | 0.80 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -24.1% · 5d -13.9% | 100% | 2 | 0.75 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -7.8% | 100% | 2 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +37bp · 5d +3bp | 78% | 4 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.9% | 56% | 4 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 44% | 4 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.4% | 40% | 2 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Soft auctions recur; outright 30y failure rare, but heavy supply + term-premium pressure live. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.