What if a longevity breakthrough leaves annuity providers dangerously under-reserved?
A breakthrough in anti-aging or chronic-disease therapeutics sharply raises longevity, leaving annuity and pension providers under-reserved as payout durations extend, an IAIS longevity-risk theme.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A breakthrough in anti-aging or chronic-disease therapeutics sharply raises longevity, leaving annuity and pension providers under-reserved as payout durations extend, an IAIS longevity-risk theme. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Pandemic shock ▼ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.37–+0.92% |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.2–+0.84% |
| 3 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.55–+2.58% |
| 4 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.1–+0.36% |
| 5 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.4–+0.46% |
| 6 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.1–+4.66% |
| 7 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.5–+0.05% |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.18–+0.11% |
| 9 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.05% |
| 10 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -10.7–+2.59% |
| 11 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -10.9% | 80% | 16 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 69% | 33 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.5% | 71% | 35 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -1.8% | 64% | 17 | 0.21 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 35 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 35 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.6% | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -4bp | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 34 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.7% | 48% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.5% | 47% | 39 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 37 | 0.00 | · |