What if an anti-automation party wins seats in a major election?
An anti-automation party winning seats injects policy risk that de-rates the AI/robotics complex (Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC) on adoption-throttle fears, while marginally supporting labor/consumption. Rhymes with the Jul-2024 megacap AI-capex-doubt selloff — a sentiment de-rating without fundamentals breaking. Skeptic's note: seats won ≠ legislation passed; this is a headline-volatility trade, fade once coalition math caps the agenda.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. An anti-automation party wins seats in a major election on a job-protection platform, threatening robotics and AI policy. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Job displacement ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.