What if a top US carrier suffers a multi-day nationwide outage?
A multi-day carrier outage is an idiosyncratic operational hit, not a macro tail — VIX spikes briefly and high-beta (Nasdaq, SOL) sells, but it mean-reverts within days once service restores. Rhymes with the Feb-2024 AT&T nationwide outage, which barely dented the tape. The geopolitical_risk root over-weights a domestic infra failure; gold's safe-haven bid is overstated unless attribution turns to state actors.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A multi-day core-network failure at a top-three US carrier severs 911 and mobile service for tens of millions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.