What if an AI independently proves a long-open mathematical conjecture?
An AI independently proving a long-open conjecture validates reasoning-scaling and re-rates research-automation and humanoid names — NVDA/semis/Tesla lead on the productivity-and-robotics read, with a disinflationary tilt supporting broad equities. Rhymes with the May-2023 Nvidia AI-capex melt-up and the 2024 TSMC blowouts that lifted the whole complex. Forward angle: a single proof is a capability signal, not revenue, so the risk is a 'narrative pop' that fades like Feb-2025's DeepSeek scare unless monetization follows — the risk-on roots (ai_capex + robot_productivity) fit the framing.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. An AI system independently proves a long-open conjecture, validating reasoning scaling and lifting research-automation names. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Robotics productivity ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.