What if wildfires engulf the Mediterranean tourism belt at peak season?
A peak-season Med fire siege is a Southern-European tourism and airline-load-factor shock (Greece/Spain/Italy), not a grain event. The tradable leg is European leisure airlines and hotel/booking names plus a short jet-fuel demand dip. Rhymes with the July 2023 Rhodes/Corfu evacuations that dented summer bookings briefly. The wheat/corn cascade is misrouted; impact is seasonal and largely recovered once fires subside.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Simultaneous fires across Greece, Spain and Italy at peak season collapse summer bookings and airline load factors. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Consumer spending ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.