What if Iberian rains refill reservoirs, lift olive & citrus crops?
A wet year refills Spanish and Portuguese reservoirs and rebuilds soil moisture, lifting olive and citrus output and easing southern-European food-price pressure.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A wet year refills Spanish and Portuguese reservoirs and rebuilds soil moisture, lifting olive and citrus output and easing southern-European food-price pressure. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▼ · European energy ▼ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.93–+0.12% · other way +5.83% (n=9) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.2–+0.27% · other way +3.7% (n=9) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.34–+8.68% · other way +0.42% (n=8) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.21–+8.71% · other way +3.15% (n=9) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.08–+6.33% · other way +2.9% (n=8) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.02–+0.24% · other way +0.44% (n=10) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.28–+0.26% · other way -1.54% (n=9) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -5.81–+7.18% · other way +5.99% (n=8) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.32–+0.23% · other way +0.3% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 26 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 20 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +8.8% · 5d -6.4% ↺ fades | 68% | 10 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -3.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 17 | 0.19 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.13 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.3% | 57% | 22 | 0.10 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 20 | 0.09 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +7bp | 56% | 26 | 0.09 | · |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 55% | 20 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +8.4% · 5d -4.5% ↺ fades | 48% | 20 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 45% | 20 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +7.6% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 46% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |