What if drought doubles the price of Spanish olive oil?
Andalusian drought is an olive-oil squeeze, not a grain or semis story; the clean trade is long olive oil and the Spanish/Italian food-processor margin pain, not wheat or fabs. Rhymes with the 2022-2023 Spanish drought that roughly doubled extra-virgin olive-oil prices to records. Spain is ~45% of world output, so the transmission is global retail food CPI in the EU/Med basket — the fab-water and grain legs modeled here do not belong.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Persistent drought across Andalusia collapses Spanish olive output, doubling global olive-oil prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.