What if Memory-chip glut pressures SK Hynix despite a Korea peace?
A DRAM/NAND oversupply cycle weighs on Korean chipmakers even as Peninsula tensions ease; KOSPI tech lags while KRW holds on the geopolitical relief — a divergence between cycle and risk.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A DRAM/NAND oversupply cycle weighs on Korean chipmakers even as Peninsula tensions ease; KOSPI tech lags while KRW holds on the geopolitical relief — a divergence between cycle and risk. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Global growth ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -13.16–+1.71% |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.7–+1.09% |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.16–-0.1% |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.42–+1.16% |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.02–+12.68% |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.39–+2.78% |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.22–+0.73% |
| 9 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.74–+5.14% |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.36–+0.87% |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.41–+1.02% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 24 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.8% · 5d -3.3% | 88% | 16 | 0.53 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.4% · 5d +2.2% | 61% | 22 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 22 | 0.17 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 23 | 0.14 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.5% | 54% | 23 | 0.07 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 21 | 0.07 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 52% | 20 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -2.7% | 53% | 17 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 48% | 23 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.1% | 48% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 46% | 23 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +0.8% | 48% | 22 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 50% | 19 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.0% | 43% | 22 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |