What if US tariffs snap Mexico's super-peso past 19?
A US tariff escalation snapping the super-peso past 19 reverses nearshoring inflows and widens UMS spreads — the cleanest channel is MXN and Mexican risk, though the cascade routes it through global tech/China. Rhymes with the 2018-19 USMCA tariff threats and the 2025 Liberation-Day tariff shock. The US takes ~80% of Mexican exports, so this is a direct bilateral-demand hit; the novel angle is nearshoring flows reversing as fast as they arrived.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US tariff escalation snaps the super-peso past 19/USD, reversing nearshoring inflows and widening UMS spreads. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.