What if Mexico Gulf hurricane hits Pemex oil & coastal industry?
A major hurricane strikes Mexico's Gulf coast, damaging Pemex oil infrastructure and coastal industry, denting output and pressuring the peso and regional credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A major hurricane strikes Mexico's Gulf coast, damaging Pemex oil infrastructure and coastal industry, denting output and pressuring the peso and regional credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -1.77–+1.71% · other way +0.31% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -3.5–+1.75% · other way +4.52% (n=11) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.97–+0.85% · other way +1.65% (n=11) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.43–+4.13% · other way +7.01% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.09–+0.73% · other way -1.1% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.28–+0.59% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.6–+2.41% · other way +6.63% (n=11) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.69–+4.15% · other way +17.55% (n=11) |
| 9 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.24–-0.14% · other way +0.07% (n=11) |
| 10 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–-0.07% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.07–+2.39% · other way -4.83% (n=9) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.32–+0.27% · other way +0.18% (n=11) |
| 13 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.02–+0.32% · other way +0.53% (n=11) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 33 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +2.9% | 69% | 34 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 33 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.8% | 65% | 33 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 33 | 0.19 | · |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +6bp | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +0.9% | 59% | 18 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -6.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 20 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |