What if a USMCA breakdown freezes investment and tips Mexico toward recession?
A breakdown in USMCA review talks triggers tariff threats and investment freeze, tipping Mexico toward recession and lifting export-sector credit losses.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A breakdown in USMCA review talks triggers tariff threats and investment freeze, tipping Mexico toward recession and lifting export-sector credit losses. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.83–-0.96% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.52–-0.11% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.34–-0.21% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.64–+2.57% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.37–+0.16% · other way +3.35% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.46–+0.6% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -5.47–+1.08% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.71–+1.16% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.39–+1.6% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -3.78–+0.44% · other way +5.45% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.12–+0.09% · other way +1.84% (n=12) |
| 12 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.57–-0.11% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.94–+1.0% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -3.8% | 74% | 39 | 0.48 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.5% | 79% | 39 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.2% | 74% | 39 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -0.7% | 69% | 38 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 70% | 39 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.2% · 5d -5.4% | 69% | 36 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d +0.0% | 65% | 39 | 0.26 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.5% | 67% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.5% | 65% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.9% | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |