What if Mining-rig oversupply crushes hardware-maker margins?
A glut of mining hardware after a bull-cycle binge collapses ASIC prices, squeezing manufacturer margins and signaling waning expansion appetite.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A glut of mining hardware after a bull-cycle binge collapses ASIC prices, squeezing manufacturer margins and signaling waning expansion appetite. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▼ · Crypto confidence ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -2.83–+0.51% · other way +3.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.3% hist -15.44–+4.95% · other way -0.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -13.36–+2.85% · other way -18.36% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -13.36–+3.27% · other way +0.67% (n=12) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.18–-0.21% · other way +3.0% (n=10) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.89–+0.96% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.34–-0.06% · other way +2.52% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.62–+0.92% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.73–+0.23% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.23–+0.35% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.31–+0.05% · other way +0.22% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.1% · 5d -8.7% | 85% | 13 | 0.58 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -11.3% · 5d -6.0% | 79% | 14 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -13.4% · 5d -8.6% | 72% | 14 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.4% | 73% | 18 | 0.34 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -20bp · 5d -9bp | 69% | 19 | 0.33 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -4.0% | 68% | 18 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 19 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 18 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 18 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 19 | 0.06 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 51% | 18 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 41% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 38% | 13 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |