What if Mozambique and new African LNG add supply, soften JKM?
Restart of Mozambique LNG and ramping projects across Africa add fresh seaborne supply into the Indian Ocean basin, softening JKM and improving Asian buyers' procurement flexibility.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Restart of Mozambique LNG and ramping projects across Africa add fresh seaborne supply into the Indian Ocean basin, softening JKM and improving Asian buyers' procurement flexibility. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · European energy ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.