What if Mozambique insurgency spreads south from Cabo Delgado?
ISIS-linked fighters expand beyond Cabo Delgado toward Nampula, broadening the conflict, delaying LNG restart and lifting Southern African risk premia.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. ISIS-linked fighters expand beyond Cabo Delgado toward Nampula, broadening the conflict, delaying LNG restart and lifting Southern African risk premia. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · Natural gas ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.7% hist +1.64–+5.93% · other way -2.91% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.9% hist -1.75–-0.72% · other way -0.15% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.28–-0.38% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -0.88–-0.1% · other way -1.61% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.87–-0.14% · other way +2.68% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.85–+4.21% · other way +28.06% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -4.49–+8.85% · other way -1.34% (n=10) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.18–+0.69% · other way -0.93% (n=11) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.74–+0.59% · other way +4.16% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.78–+0.38% · other way +7.57% (n=10) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.33–+1.08% · other way +8.15% (n=10) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.49–-0.22% · other way -0.6% (n=11) |
| 14 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.02–+0.05% · other way -0.17% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.2% | 66% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +4.3% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 37 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +0.9% | 59% | 15 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.3% | 59% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.5% | 58% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.7% | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |