What if Mozambique LNG abandoned, multi-year supply lost?
Persistent insurgency forces a permanent rethink of Mozambique LNG, stripping expected supply from the 2020s market and structurally tightening global gas.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Persistent insurgency forces a permanent rethink of Mozambique LNG, stripping expected supply from the 2020s market and structurally tightening global gas. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.1% hist +0.34–+6.34% · other way -9.37% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -1.39–-0.51% · other way +0.16% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.86–-0.34% · other way +0.13% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.81–-0.34% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.66–-0.3% · other way +0.61% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.71–+2.89% · other way +14.41% (n=11) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.26–+7.14% · other way -2.03% (n=9) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.78–+0.84% · other way +5.44% (n=9) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.58–+0.27% · other way +0.97% (n=11) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.12–+0.48% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.67–+0.63% · other way +9.6% (n=9) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.95–+0.06% · other way +1.35% (n=11) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.58–+-0.0% · other way -0.02% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.7% · 5d +1.9% | 70% | 35 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -1.5% | 66% | 36 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 61% | 40 | 0.22 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.7% | 62% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 20 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.9% | 58% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.7% | 58% | 36 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.2% | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.1% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 25 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.9% | 57% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |