What if non-US NBFIs face a dollar-funding squeeze via FX-swap rollover failure?
Non-US NBFIs reliant on short-term dollar funding via FX swaps face a rollover squeeze in a risk-off shock, the hidden-dollar-debt risk the BIS quantifies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Non-US NBFIs reliant on short-term dollar funding via FX swaps face a rollover squeeze in a risk-off shock, the hidden-dollar-debt risk the BIS quantifies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.15–+1.03% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.19–-0.01% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -11.71–+3.27% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -11.35–+3.13% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.33–+0.15% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.06–+0.44% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 7 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.64–+0.54% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.5–+0.48% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.36–-0.2% · other way +0.75% (n=12) |
| 11 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.88–+0.6% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.91–+0.04% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist +0.94–+2.77% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -5.01–+1.75% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -7.5% | 79% | 14 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d -5.4% | 75% | 16 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 36 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 36 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -4.0% | 68% | 37 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -4.2% | 68% | 22 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 36 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 36 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 37 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 36 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.2% | 58% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |