What if a new El Nino drought chokes the Panama Canal?
A fresh El Nino drought cutting Panama to 18 transits reroutes US Gulf grain and LNG the long way, lifting freight and a modest Brent premium plus CBOT wheat/corn on logistics, not a true oil-supply shock. Rhymes with the 2023-24 Panama drought that slashed transits to ~22 and spiked Asia-bound freight without a lasting crude rally. The US Gulf is the affected exporter to Asia/EU; the forward angle is oil_supply_risk is overstated - this is a shipping/cost and grain-logistics event, so crude's +1.8% should fade as cargoes reroute via Suez/Cape.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A fresh El Nino drought slashes Panama daily transits to 18, rerouting US grain and LNG around Cape Horn for months. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Diesel ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.13–+1.12% · other way -4.13% (n=9) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.01–+1.29% · other way +1.88% (n=9) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.35–+0.68% · other way -2.24% (n=9) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -6.17–+1.12% · other way +5.38% (n=9) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.63–+1.2% · other way -1.4% (n=10) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.35–+0.44% · other way -4.7% (n=10) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.85–+0.23% · other way -0.78% (n=7) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.95–+0.6% · other way -6.78% (n=10) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.97–+1.68% · other way +0.05% (n=10) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.18–+0.98% · other way -1.4% (n=9) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.95–+10.96% · other way +4.1% (n=10) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.36–+1.1% · other way +2.13% (n=9) |
| 13 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.68–+5.54% · other way +3.0% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -3.1% | 71% | 32 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.1% | 65% | 32 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +4bp | 60% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -3.4% | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -1.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.0% | 59% | 25 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.0% | 57% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.1% | 56% | 32 | 0.10 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.5% · 5d +0.5% | 56% | 25 | 0.09 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +2bp | 52% | 40 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 42% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -5.3% | 50% | 32 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 48% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Panama drought recurs cyclically but ENSO-neutral mid-2026; severe 18-transit cut within 6mo less likely. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.