What if drought at Panama and disruption at Suez hit at once?
Simultaneous Panama-drought and Suez disruption spike freight rates and lengthen routes, pushing a war/supply premium into Brent (more Gulf-exposed than WTI) while goods-cost pass-through nudges breakevens and pressures tariff-sensitive tech. Rhymes with the 2023-24 Red Sea/Houthi rerouting and 2021 Suez Ever Given blockage, both of which spiked container rates and crude briefly. Forward angle: this is a curve/breakeven trade — long energy and real yields — more than an equity short, since freight inflation is transitory once routing normalizes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Panama-Canal drought plus Suez disruption spikes global freight rates. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -0.24–+1.57% · other way -3.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -1.85–+1.44% · other way -3.53% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.88–-0.37% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 4 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.48–+1.06% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.69–-0.38% · other way +0.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.19% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.9–+0.7% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.29–+6.35% · other way +8.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.79–+0.24% · other way +1.09% (n=12) |
| 10 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.15–+0.6% · other way -1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.5–+0.52% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.04–+0.69% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.52–+2.71% · other way +4.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.75–+0.41% · other way -3.79% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's LONG on CL/BRENT/XLE: the historical negatives lean on stale 2014-OPEC and 2020-price-war supply gluts — the opposite of a freight-cost shock; a Panama/Suez double-disruption tightens delivered crude, lifting oil.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 34 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 68% | 31 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.8% | 68% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 67% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -5.0% | 65% | 34 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 64% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.9% | 63% | 34 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -6.8% ↺ fades | 66% | 17 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -4.5% | 63% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.3% | 61% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Both Panama drought and Suez disruption have recent precedent; simultaneous spike plausible. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.