What if a new foot-and-mouth outbreak hits German livestock?
A fresh German FMD outbreak is an EU livestock/meat-trade shock — short EU pork/beef export access and watch third-country import bans, not a Nasdaq/semis selloff; the China-tariff cascade is entirely mis-mapped. Rhymes with the 2001 UK FMD epidemic that culled millions and shut British meat exports, and Germany's own Jan-2025 buffalo case. Transmission is EU regionalization rules and Asian import bans on German meat; trade_tension here wrongly drags in yuan/TSMC.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A fresh foot-and-mouth outbreak strikes German livestock, distinct from 2025, triggering mass culls and snapping shut EU meat export markets. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.