What if insufficient gas forces EU winter energy rationing and cuts industrial output?
Insufficient gas storage forces EU winter energy rationing, with mandated industrial demand curtailment cutting German and Italian factory output and triggering a sharp activity drop.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Insufficient gas storage forces EU winter energy rationing, with mandated industrial demand curtailment cutting German and Italian factory output and triggering a sharp activity drop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.