What if EU drought clips French and German soft-wheat exports?
A spring-summer dry spell across France and Germany cuts EU soft-wheat output and milling quality, shrinking exportable surplus and lifting MATIF wheat.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A spring-summer dry spell across France and Germany cuts EU soft-wheat output and milling quality, shrinking exportable surplus and lifting MATIF wheat. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Wheat ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.25–+0.86% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.08–+0.31% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +8.1% | 63% | 19 | 0.23 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 18 | 0.21 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 52% | 29 | 0.03 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 18 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.4% | 39% | 18 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 48% | 29 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.0% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | · |