What if a new trade bloc forms that shuts out the United States?
A new non-US trade bloc is a trade-tension-plus-dollar-confidence shock, so the trade is modestly higher long yields, a softer chip/Nasdaq complex and gold/bitcoin bid, with Alibaba caught in the crossfire. Rhymes with the 2025 'Liberation Day' tariff regime and the resulting scramble to reroute trade around the US. Transmission: excluding the US reroutes supply chains toward intra-bloc partners; forward angle — the dollar's invoicing dominance means trade can realign long before settlement does, so FX reserves move slower than the trade flows.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A new multipolar trade bloc forms that deliberately excludes the United States. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.0–+2.19% · other way +24.57% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.91–-0.34% · other way -0.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.73–-0.34% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.15–+2.14% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.21–+1.41% · other way +5.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.84–+2.3% · other way +4.34% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.63–-0.26% · other way +3.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.62–-0.18% · other way -0.38% (n=12) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.56–-0.24% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.55–-0.11% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.96–+1.34% · other way +1.14% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.45–+0.99% · other way +5.45% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.75–+0.58% · other way +1.84% (n=12) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.82–+1.41% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust history's ETH short: numerous clean on-channel tariff and yuan-break analogues (2018-2025) all sold crypto hard; the cascade's risk-off-flight-into-ETH thesis over-reaches on a weak second-order path.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -2.9% | 73% | 36 | 0.45 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 75% | 38 | 0.44 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.0% | 74% | 35 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 72% | 35 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 69% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.1% | 69% | 35 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -5.8% | 70% | 34 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.2% | 67% | 35 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.2% | 68% | 36 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.8% | 69% | 35 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -7.7% | 66% | 33 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.4% | 64% | 35 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
BRICS+ expansion underway; a bloc structurally excluding the US plausible across a decade. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.