What if Next-gen ASIC efficiency leap reshapes mining competitiveness?
A step-change in mining-chip efficiency renders older fleets obsolete, concentrating margins among capitalized operators and reshaping the supply curve.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A step-change in mining-chip efficiency renders older fleets obsolete, concentrating margins among capitalized operators and reshaping the supply curve. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Bitcoin ▲ · Crypto confidence ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.8% hist -3.86–+11.76% · other way +2.48% (n=11) |
| 2 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +2.3% hist -1.65–+1.84% · other way -16.66% (n=7) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.6% hist -6.75–+2.19% · other way -4.21% (n=6) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.5–+1.14% · other way -17.61% (n=7) |
| 5 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -3.45–+8.31% · other way +3.12% (n=6) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.89–+0.13% · other way +3.81% (n=11) |
| 8 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.61–+0.85% · other way +0.89% (n=11) |
| 9 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.76–+0.7% · other way +0.98% (n=11) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.61–+0.23% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.72–+0.25% · other way +0.34% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -4.0% | 73% | 40 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -6.7% | 68% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 66% | 40 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 68% | 40 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -3.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.2% | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +3bp | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 54% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +9.8% · 5d +0.9% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 41% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +2.1% | 46% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -2.1% ↺ fades | 44% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |