What if a risk-off rotation sells off the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone together?
A risk-off rotation out of small open economies sells off SEK and NOK together, importing inflation and forcing the Riksbank and Norges Bank to balance currency defense against fragile property sectors.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A risk-off rotation out of small open economies sells off SEK and NOK together, importing inflation and forcing the Riksbank and Norges Bank to balance currency defense against fragile property sectors. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.