What if the Norwegian krone sells off sharply in a global risk-off and oil-price slump?
The illiquid Norwegian krone sells off sharply in a global risk-off and oil-price slump, importing inflation and complicating Norges Bank's response amid high household debt.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The illiquid Norwegian krone sells off sharply in a global risk-off and oil-price slump, importing inflation and complicating Norges Bank's response amid high household debt. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -2.18–+1.14% · other way +10.3% (n=10) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.03–+2.09% · other way +2.54% (n=7) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.04–+3.63% · other way +2.01% (n=7) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.74–-0.37% · other way -2.06% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.71–+0.39% · other way +2.03% (n=7) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -5.98–+6.87% · other way +28.73% (n=7) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.02–+0.98% · other way +1.12% (n=12) |
| 9 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.85–-0.01% · other way -1.72% (n=9) |
| 10 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.2–+0.1% · other way -1.33% (n=9) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.87–+0.6% · other way +0.71% (n=9) |
| 12 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.55–+1.61% · other way -1.94% (n=11) |
| 13 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.39–-0.1% · other way -0.72% (n=9) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.72% · other way -0.39% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 69% | 34 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 65% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 66% | 34 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 19 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d +4.7% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 55% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 34 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 54% | 39 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -6.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 17 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |