What if Nvidia missed earnings and cut its guidance?
An Nvidia miss-and-cut is the highest-signal single-name event in the complex: it drags HBM (Micron) and custom-silicon (Broadcom) more than the index because it resets the capex narrative, not just one quarter. Rhymes with Micron's Dec-2024 weak FQ2 guide and the DeepSeek tape — both showed the read-through hits suppliers harder than the index. Forward angle: positioning is now so consensus-long that a small guide-down can force outsized de-grossing; size the vol, not just the delta.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Nvidia misses earnings and cuts guidance, popping the AI-semis trade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.