What if Nvidia missed earnings and cut its guidance?
An Nvidia miss-and-cut is the highest-signal single-name event in the complex: it drags HBM (Micron) and custom-silicon (Broadcom) more than the index because it resets the capex narrative, not just one quarter. Rhymes with Micron's Dec-2024 weak FQ2 guide and the DeepSeek tape — both showed the read-through hits suppliers harder than the index. Forward angle: positioning is now so consensus-long that a small guide-down can force outsized de-grossing; size the vol, not just the delta.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Nvidia misses earnings and cuts guidance, popping the AI-semis trade. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.07–-0.42% · other way +4.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.22–+0.46% · other way +5.73% (n=12) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.05–+0.4% · other way -1.63% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.58–-0.01% · other way +1.37% (n=12) |
| 5 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.16–+0.13% · other way -3.31% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.54–+0.21% · other way +1.86% (n=12) |
| 7 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.77–+0.9% · other way +0.78% (n=12) |
| 8 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.58–+0.97% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 9 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.55–+0.79% · other way -2.95% (n=12) |
| 10 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.15–+1.19% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -3.2% | 71% | 40 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.7% | 65% | 40 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.1% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.2% | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -3.1% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.7% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 45% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Single print; AI demand still strong mid-2026, guidance-cut surprise unlikely soon. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.