What if a confidence shock to offshore dollar stablecoins tightens EM dollar liquidity?
Offshore dollar stablecoins become a meaningful shadow dollar-funding channel, so a confidence shock to them tightens EM dollar liquidity outside the banking system.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Offshore dollar stablecoins become a meaningful shadow dollar-funding channel, so a confidence shock to them tightens EM dollar liquidity outside the banking system. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Crypto liquidity ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -12.89–+5.61% · other way -18.56% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -3.57–+0.32% · other way -7.85% (n=12) |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -14.84–+8.0% · other way -6.7% (n=11) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -15.97–+5.4% · other way -5.65% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.64–-0.04% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.29–+3.24% · other way -2.32% (n=12) |
| 8 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.43–+0.51% · other way +2.5% (n=11) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.51% · other way +1.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.19–+0.34% · other way -0.89% (n=12) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.06–+0.56% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 12 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.1–+0.34% · other way -0.52% (n=12) |
| 13 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.47% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–-0.01% · other way +0.36% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 33 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -8.8% | 82% | 11 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.9% · 5d -15.8% | 78% | 9 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.9% | 72% | 32 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -14.4% · 5d -11.7% | 70% | 10 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 27 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 33 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 66% | 28 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -4.9% | 66% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -17bp · 5d -9bp | 63% | 33 | 0.23 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 27 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 28 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 28 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 20 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |