What if Oil-price spike reflates energy-equity earnings and lifts XLE?
A supply-driven crude rally lifts upstream cash flows and earnings revisions, driving XLE outperformance as integrateds and E&Ps capture the price upside.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A supply-driven crude rally lifts upstream cash flows and earnings revisions, driving XLE outperformance as integrateds and E&Ps capture the price upside. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Oil demand ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.39–+2.12% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.6% hist -1.79–+2.15% · other way +6.06% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.02–+2.45% · other way +0.1% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.63–+8.58% · other way +1.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.5–+2.85% · other way -2.41% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.1–+1.91% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.39–+4.87% · other way +3.68% (n=12) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.74–+0.02% · other way +2.86% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.52–+23.28% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -3.02–+24.58% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.64–+0.1% · other way +1.12% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.81–+0.17% · other way +0.97% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.33–+6.64% · other way +13.17% (n=9) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.03–+0.38% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.9% · 5d +0.5% | 81% | 32 | 0.59 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +19bp · 5d +9bp | 70% | 39 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +4.6% · 5d +0.1% | 69% | 31 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +18bp · 5d +9bp | 67% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.3% | 71% | 31 | 0.31 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +8.1% · 5d +0.3% | 67% | 31 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.2% · 5d +0.3% | 68% | 24 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.7% · 5d +0.8% | 66% | 34 | 0.27 | · |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -6.2% | 68% | 12 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.1% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 32 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |