What if OPEC+ discipline fractures into a Saudi price push?
Frustrated by quota cheating, Saudi Arabia opens the taps to discipline rivals, flooding the market; Brent slides and high-cost producers face a deflationary shakeout.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Frustrated by quota cheating, Saudi Arabia opens the taps to discipline rivals, flooding the market; Brent slides and high-cost producers face a deflationary shakeout. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.56–-0.4% · other way -1.75% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.45–+0.3% · other way -1.54% (n=11) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.14–-0.16% · other way +0.3% (n=11) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -1.99–+5.5% · other way +18.31% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.83–-0.16% · other way -0.39% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.69–-0.15% · other way +0.09% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.07–+3.54% · other way +11.2% (n=11) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -6.52–+0.58% · other way +24.4% (n=12) |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.27–+1.4% · other way -1.82% (n=11) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -4bp hist -8.66–+0.79% · other way +31.1% (n=12) |
| 11 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.32–+4.85% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.53–+3.49% · other way +8.68% (n=11) |
| 13 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–+0.14% · other way +1.41% (n=12) |
| 14 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▼ -2bp model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 28 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +-0.0% | 61% | 27 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.5% | 53% | 26 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +1.2% | 53% | 26 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 28 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 47% | 36 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -6.9% ↺ fades | 50% | 11 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |