What if Saudi spare-capacity buffer caps oil-price spikes?
The kingdom's rebuilt spare capacity lets it offset supply shocks elsewhere, capping Brent spikes and stabilizing both its own revenue path and global inflation expectations.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The kingdom's rebuilt spare capacity lets it offset supply shocks elsewhere, capping Brent spikes and stabilizing both its own revenue path and global inflation expectations. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil supply risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.65–-1.54% · other way -4.83% (n=10) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -2.0% hist -7.18–+3.85% · other way -5.83% (n=10) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.81–-0.38% · other way -3.23% (n=10) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -4.84–+7.68% · other way +16.17% (n=10) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.78–+1.34% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.99–+1.33% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -3.7–+7.53% · other way +6.61% (n=10) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -9.77–+11.33% · other way +6.08% (n=10) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.74–+2.87% · other way +0.19% (n=7) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.05–+0.93% · other way +0.35% (n=10) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -5.96–-2.74% · other way +7.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.24–+0.57% · other way +0.34% (n=10) |
| 14 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.03–+5.54% · other way +1.46% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 6 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.0% · 5d +0.3% | 83% | 5 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -8.9% · 5d -8.7% | 86% | 6 | 0.57 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -0.2% | 86% | 6 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +0.6% | 71% | 6 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +13.7% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 70% | 4 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +7.1% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 5 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +5.5% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 70% | 4 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +19.8% · 5d +7.2% | 62% | 3 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +1.2% | 58% | 5 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 5 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 5 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.4% | 58% | 5 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |