What if OPEC+ discipline holds Brent in a fiscally comfortable band?
Coordinated OPEC+ supply management keeps Brent comfortably above Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven without choking demand, stabilizing the kingdom's finances and global risk sentiment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Coordinated OPEC+ supply management keeps Brent comfortably above Saudi Arabia's fiscal breakeven without choking demand, stabilizing the kingdom's finances and global risk sentiment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Global growth ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.55–+1.18% · other way +2.86% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -2.19–+1.43% · other way +9.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.04–+1.51% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.48–+1.78% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.34–+1.71% · other way -2.28% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.01–+0.97% · other way -1.62% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.95–+1.22% · other way +3.26% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.29–+8.46% · other way +11.73% (n=9) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.49–+1.56% · other way +4.49% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.63% · other way -8.04% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.62–+0.91% · other way +4.69% (n=10) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.39–+0.28% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 14 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.76–+0.2% · other way +3.31% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.6% · 5d +1.4% | 68% | 17 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 38 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +6bp | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +7.8% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 18 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 37 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 30 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 58% | 35 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -4.2% | 56% | 26 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 30 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.5% | 55% | 34 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +6bp | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |