What if Open-source models commoditize the AI software stack?
Capable open-weight models collapse the price of inference and erode proprietary AI-software differentiation, compressing margins for closed-model and AI-application vendors.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Capable open-weight models collapse the price of inference and erode proprietary AI-software differentiation, compressing margins for closed-model and AI-application vendors. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI breakthrough ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.08–+1.43% |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -19.93–-1.99% |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.53–+6.99% |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.66–+1.6% |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.39–+2.07% |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist +-0.0–+0.21% |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.18–+0.57% |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.12–+2.41% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -13.5% · 5d -6.7% | 96% | 21 | 0.62 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 37 | 0.24 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.16 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 38 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -5.2% | 57% | 27 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 55% | 31 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 36 | 0.09 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 37 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 51% | 38 | 0.01 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 48% | 37 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 45% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |