What if Palladium short squeeze on a Russian-supply headline?
A surprise Russian palladium export-restriction headline catches a heavily short market offside; palladium gaps higher in a violent short-covering squeeze.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surprise Russian palladium export-restriction headline catches a heavily short market offside; palladium gaps higher in a violent short-covering squeeze. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +4.7% hist +0.76–+4.3% · other way -6.78% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.22–-0.45% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.88–+0.1% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.95–-0.18% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.73–+2.69% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.2–+2.14% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.63–+0.26% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -6.23–+1.7% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 10 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.52–+0.15% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.22–+0.31% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.62–-0.03% · other way +1.91% (n=10) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.22–+1.13% · other way +1.22% (n=11) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.24–+0.39% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.8% | 66% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 38 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.4% · 5d -6.4% | 63% | 20 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +6.1% | 61% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.5% · 5d +0.4% | 59% | 12 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 59% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -0.8% | 56% | 38 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 34 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.9% | 57% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |