What if Indonesia reimposing palm-oil export restrictions spikes vegetable-oil prices globally?
Indonesia reimposes palm-oil export restrictions (a 2022-style ban) during a supply scare, spiking vegetable-oil prices globally and raising food costs for import-reliant Asia and Africa.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Indonesia reimposes palm-oil export restrictions (a 2022-style ban) during a supply scare, spiking vegetable-oil prices globally and raising food costs for import-reliant Asia and Africa. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.79–-0.14% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.71–-0.35% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.96–-0.19% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.88–+0.48% · other way +0.79% (n=12) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.6–+0.75% · other way -1.14% (n=11) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.04–+0.97% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.04–+1.06% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.99–+0.47% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.21–+1.98% · other way +2.57% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.31–+0.66% · other way -4.29% (n=12) |
| 11 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.5–+0.32% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.77–-0.04% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.8–+0.65% · other way -2.89% (n=12) |
| 14 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.26–+0.27% · other way -1.94% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -0.4% | 76% | 24 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.6% | 72% | 27 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 69% | 19 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 11 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.3% | 63% | 24 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 18 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |