What if Indonesia reimposing palm-oil export restrictions spikes vegetable-oil prices globally?
Indonesia reimposes palm-oil export restrictions (a 2022-style ban) during a supply scare, spiking vegetable-oil prices globally and raising food costs for import-reliant Asia and Africa.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
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Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Indonesia reimposes palm-oil export restrictions (a 2022-style ban) during a supply scare, spiking vegetable-oil prices globally and raising food costs for import-reliant Asia and Africa. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.