What if PBOC engineers a managed yuan devaluation to export disinflation?
A controlled step-weaker in the yuan boosts Chinese export competitiveness but exports deflation and pressures EM-Asia currencies, a mixed signal that lifts China equities yet dents the bloc.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A controlled step-weaker in the yuan boosts Chinese export competitiveness but exports deflation and pressures EM-Asia currencies, a mixed signal that lifts China equities yet dents the bloc. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · China stimulus ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.51–+0.15% · other way -0.33% (n=10) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.67–-0.06% · other way -0.05% (n=10) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -5.08–+2.06% · other way +8.06% (n=11) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.72–+1.54% · other way +15.54% (n=11) |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.41–+0.64% · other way +1.17% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.86–+3.44% · other way -10.86% (n=8) |
| 7 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.01–+0.39% · other way +0.69% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–-0.02% · other way -0.11% (n=10) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.57–+0.09% · other way +0.36% (n=10) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.55–+3.35% · other way +0.47% (n=8) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -5.16–+1.98% · other way +4.01% (n=8) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.75–+0.19% · other way +2.1% (n=11) |
| 14 | GBP/USD GBPUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.28–+-0.0% · other way -0.74% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -3.1% | 67% | 24 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 28 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.5% · 5d -15.1% | 67% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.0% · 5d -7.6% | 65% | 17 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 28 | 0.23 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.7% | 61% | 28 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 61% | 28 | 0.18 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -1.9% | 59% | 30 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -4.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 28 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 57% | 28 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 23 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 23 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.5% | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |