What if PBOC shifts to a stronger yuan-fixing regime to curb outflows?
A deliberately firmer daily yuan fix signals defense of the currency against capital flight, tightening domestic liquidity and dampening the China-reflation trade for commodities and EM.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A deliberately firmer daily yuan fix signals defense of the currency against capital flight, tightening domestic liquidity and dampening the China-reflation trade for commodities and EM. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▼ · EM currencies ▼ · China stimulus ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -5.52–+1.73% · other way +8.32% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.67–+0.42% · other way -0.19% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.9–+3.35% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.7–+1.7% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -8.07–+3.38% · other way +4.03% (n=8) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.65–+0.15% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.19–+0.07% · other way +0.62% (n=12) |
| 9 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.65–+0.97% · other way -1.46% (n=8) |
| 10 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.34–+0.26% · other way +0.44% (n=10) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.48–+0.52% · other way -5.17% (n=8) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.87–+1.98% · other way +8.61% (n=8) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.19–+0.19% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -3.2% | 67% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.4% · 5d -14.7% | 68% | 15 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 65% | 28 | 0.25 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -7.4% | 63% | 17 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.6% | 61% | 28 | 0.20 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 61% | 28 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -1.8% | 59% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -3.4% | 55% | 23 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 55% | 35 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.6% · 5d -3.2% | 55% | 23 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 54% | 28 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -7bp | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 53% | 28 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |