What if PBOC widens the yuan trading band toward a freer float?
A step toward market-determined FX widens the daily band, increasing two-way volatility; the reform signal is structurally positive but near-term unsettling for EM-Asia carry and currencies.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A step toward market-determined FX widens the daily band, increasing two-way volatility; the reform signal is structurally positive but near-term unsettling for EM-Asia carry and currencies. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · China stimulus ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -11.1–+2.62% |
| 2 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.16–+0.9% |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.07–+0.19% |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.76–+1.7% |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -12.06–+2.29% |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.07–+0.16% |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.28–+1.71% |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.11–+0.46% |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.43–+1.1% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -9.7% · 5d -16.0% | 76% | 17 | 0.43 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -10.2% · 5d -9.9% | 71% | 21 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 32 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 31 | 0.24 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.3% | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.0% | 58% | 27 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -5.5% | 56% | 35 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.3% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | · |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 33 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 43% | 40 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 49% | 33 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -1bp | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |