What if PC demand falls off a cliff once the refresh cycle ends?
A post-refresh PC-shipment cliff is a client-end demand shock — short Dell/HP/AMD-client and PC-exposed memory, not the AI-capex complex. The cascade wrongly sells NVDA/Broadcom/HBM, which ride datacenter, not consumer PCs; Micron's Dec-2024 weak FQ2 guide (the cited analogue) was the PC/consumer-NAND leg selling off while AI-HBM held. Forward: AI-PC upgrade cycle could backstop the trough sooner than the 2001 post-Y2K air-pocket.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Enterprise PC refresh ends abruptly, sending shipments into a steep decline and gutting Dell, HP, and AMD client revenue. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Growth surprise ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.59–+0.6% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.02–+1.58% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.42–+1.02% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.46–+1.01% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.1% hist -1.72–+3.87% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | · |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +1.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.8% · 5d +0.3% | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.5% | 56% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 53% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.8% · 5d +0.2% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.0% | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 41% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.2% | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
Cyclical PC swings common, but an abrupt cliff gutting AMD/Dell client rev is less typical; AI-PC refresh supports demand. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.