What if the Philippines scrambles to import rice after typhoons?
A Philippine rice scramble is a Southeast-Asia rice trade — long Thai/Viet 5% rice and watch India's export policy as the swing supplier, not CBOT wheat. Rhymes with 2008 and again 2023-24, when India's non-basmati ban sent Manila into emergency tenders and Asian rice to multi-year highs. Philippines is the largest rice importer, so transmission runs straight to Vietnam/Thailand export FX; the wheat/corn proxy misses the actual grain in play.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Typhoon damage and import dependence trigger a Philippine rice-supply panic and emergency state buying. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.