What if Philippine and Indonesian nickel curbs ripple into stainless-and-PGM?
Tighter Southeast Asian nickel export rules raise nickel and ferro-alloy costs, lifting stainless prices and feeding cost-push pressure across the metals complex.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Tighter Southeast Asian nickel export rules raise nickel and ferro-alloy costs, lifting stainless prices and feeding cost-push pressure across the metals complex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.42–-0.07% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.42–+0.16% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.84–+1.25% · other way -1.7% (n=9) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.3–+0.6% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.23–-0.13% · other way +6.78% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.34% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 7 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.89–+1.41% · other way +7.57% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.14% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.42–+2.28% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.08–+0.33% · other way +6.1% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.85–+1.45% · other way +10.41% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.9–+0.82% · other way +21.27% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.06–+0.92% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.68–+0.57% · other way -2.2% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.2% | 78% | 22 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 19 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 19 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -4.0% | 64% | 12 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -3.8% | 61% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +7.2% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 62% | 10 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 19 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 15 | 0.12 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -2.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |