What if a transformer shortage stretches grid repairs past four years?
A global large-power-transformer shortage stretching lead times past four years throttles new grid connections — bearish for AI-capex deliverability (NVDA/semis) but bullish copper demand via grid-rebuild intensity. Rhymes with the 2022-2024 LPT and grid-equipment backlog that became the silent bottleneck on electrification. Forward angle: GOES (grain-oriented electrical steel) and transformer capacity are the real chokepoint; the cleanest expression is long copper/electrical-equipment, not just short semis.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A global large-power-transformer shortage stretches grid-repair lead times past four years, throttling new connections. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.