What if a widely deployed open AI model is found to be backdoored?
A backdoored open model triggers rollout freezes and re-vetting, a software-trust shock the cascade mis-routes through TSMC/ASML hardware supply. Real transmission is delayed enterprise AI deployment, denting near-term GPU pull-through; NVDA/SOL slip on risk, fabs are second-order. Rhymes with the SolarWinds 2020 supply-chain compromise — broad re-vetting, contained market impact. Skeptical note: semiconductor_risk +0.3 overstates the fab channel; this is a trust event, not a wafer event.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A backdoored open model in wide deployment is discovered, prompting mass re-vetting and rollout freezes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.