What if Power-bottleneck stagflation: grid caps AI build and spikes power prices?
Grid and generation shortfalls throttle the AI data-center build-out while spiking electricity prices, producing a niche stagflation that lifts inflation and the recession signal together.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Grid and generation shortfalls throttle the AI data-center build-out while spiking electricity prices, producing a niche stagflation that lifts inflation and the recession signal together. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.94–+3.19% · other way -10.29% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.04–+2.98% · other way +15.29% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.57–-0.14% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.64–+0.33% · other way +0.28% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -5.26–+1.92% · other way +1.04% (n=11) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.13–+1.92% · other way +0.59% (n=12) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.75–+1.19% · other way -8.59% (n=12) |
| 9 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–+0.33% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.58–+0.37% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.93–+0.09% · other way -0.85% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.45–+0.24% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.45% · other way -0.58% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.61–+0.83% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 24 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -5.5% | 69% | 16 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 62% | 24 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.9% | 63% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.9% | 61% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.0% | 62% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 24 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +4bp ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 35 | 0.17 | · |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.6% | 58% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.9% | 58% | 28 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -4.5% | 58% | 19 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.8% | 57% | 21 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 22 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |