What if Qatar LNG expansion floods the market?
Qatar's North Field mega-expansion ramps on schedule, adding a wave of LNG that pulls JKM and TTF structurally lower and eases European and Asian energy costs.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Qatar's North Field mega-expansion ramps on schedule, adding a wave of LNG that pulls JKM and TTF structurally lower and eases European and Asian energy costs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · European energy ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -3.17–+5.07% · other way +5.06% (n=9) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.09–+0.13% · other way -3.18% (n=10) |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.53–+1.36% · other way -0.67% (n=10) |
| 5 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.38–+0.25% · other way -0.48% (n=10) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.56–+7.61% · other way +0.64% (n=10) |
| 7 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.09–+0.7% · other way +0.6% (n=10) |
| 8 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.3% hist -7.61–+2.04% · other way +6.2% (n=10) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.09–+0.21% · other way +0.43% (n=10) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -4.11–+5.67% · other way +2.19% (n=10) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -2.88–+6.17% · other way +12.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.3–+1.14% · other way -0.98% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -12.55–+17.43% · other way +4.74% (n=8) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.09–+0.46% · other way -1.31% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 65% | 21 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +18.3% · 5d +4.7% | 64% | 9 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -4.7% | 64% | 26 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.1% | 62% | 23 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +4bp | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 23 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 31 | 0.12 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.9% · 5d -6.8% ↺ fades | 55% | 12 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 13 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +7.2% · 5d -4.3% ↺ fades | 44% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 46% | 24 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.8% · 5d -4.6% ↺ fades | 42% | 13 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |