What if a fire knocks out Qatar's LNG export trains?
A Ras Laffan fire knocking out Qatari LNG trains tightens global gas, spiking JKM and TTF and pulling Asian and European buyers into a bidding war; the cleanest trade is long TTF/JKM, with EUR weaker on the import shock. Rhymes with the 2022 Freeport outage, which lifted TTF sharply while sparing crude. Transmission: Qatar is the swing LNG supplier to both Asia and Europe, so the two hubs converge upward. Forward angle: Qatar's North Field expansion volumes are not yet online in 2026, leaving the market thin and the spike larger than headline crude suggests.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A fire at Ras Laffan knocks out Qatari LNG trains, tightening global gas and spiking JKM and TTF. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.