What if the rand crashes more than 20% and forces the SARB into a defensive rate hike?
The rand crashes more than 20% in a global EM risk-off, driving imported inflation and forcing the SARB into a defensive rate hike against a backdrop of weak growth.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The rand crashes more than 20% in a global EM risk-off, driving imported inflation and forcing the SARB into a defensive rate hike against a backdrop of weak growth. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · EM currencies ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.4% hist -11.06–+8.3% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 2 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.9–+0.1% · other way -0.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.89–+2.55% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.77–+1.54% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.2–+0.41% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.84–-0.38% · other way +4.46% (n=12) |
| 8 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.79–+1.72% · other way +7.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.02–+0.83% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.08–+3.93% · other way -1.26% (n=12) |
| 11 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.21–+1.04% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 12 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.65–+0.74% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 13 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.18–+0.39% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.39–+1.47% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.4% | 100% | 4 | 0.76 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.1% | 100% | 4 | 0.75 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.9% | 100% | 4 | 0.51 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +0.8% | 80% | 5 | 0.46 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.3% | 75% | 4 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -0.5% | 83% | 6 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 80% | 5 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 75% | 4 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.1% | 75% | 4 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +7.8% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 75% | 4 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +21bp · 5d +6bp | 67% | 10 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 75% | 4 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -2.3% | 75% | 4 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.6% | 75% | 4 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |